It was the colorfully named "Deep Throat" who, cloaked in a dark and desolate parking garage in the motion picture, "All the President's Men," admonished Washington Post reporter Bob Woodward to "follow the money" in the Watergate investigation. Woodward, and his cohort, Carl Bernstein, did just that, subsequently leading to the resignation of President Richard Nixon. Unfortunately, life does not always imitate art and bettors who followed the money during the recently concluded college football bowl game campaign were resigned to losing in the NCAA post-season.
Of the 32 bowl games (Yes, that's too many but what would you expect when 6-6 teams are "rewarded" with post-season games?) 11 of them had point spread adjustments of three or more points from their opening to closing numbers. The assumption always has been that sophisticated bettors or so-called "wiseguys" have discovered some misjudgment in the point spread and have exploited that flaw with enough "smart money" that bookmakers have been forced to move the line. Often, casual bettors, seeing the line movement, have jumped on the bandwagon, adding to the one-way action.
That wasn't such a good idea this collegiate post-season as "moves" were just 5-6 against the spread.
Among the notable losers were UCLA, Purdue, Connecticut, Central Florida, Georgia Tech and Oklahoma:
- UCLA was bet from -3 1/2 to -6 1/2 over BYU in the Las Vegas Bowl, Dec. 22, but lost the game outright, 17-16.
- Purdue was boosted from -4 to -8 over Central Michigan in the Motor City Bowl, Dec. 26, but failed to cover even the original point spread, winning 51-48.
- Connecticut was lowered from a +5 1/2-point underdog to just +1 1/2 (significantly, past the key number three) but succumbed 24-10 to Wake Forest's second half comeback in the Meineke Bowl, Dec. 29.
- Bettors ignored the dangers that always are inherent in passing zero when they transformed CFU from a 1 1/2-point underdog to a 2 1/2-point favorite over Mississippi State in the Liberty Bowl, Dec. 29, losing outright, 10-3.
- Gamblers made their biggest mistake—-at least in terms of point spread movement—-when they bet Georgia Tech up from a meager 1 1/2-point to a 6-point favorite over Fresno State in the Humanitarian Bowl, Dec. 31. There was nothing humanitarian about the way Fresno State manhandled Georgia Tech, 40-28.
- By way of volume, perhaps the biggest loss for players was Oklahoma against West Virginia in the Fiesta Bowl, Jan. 2. Not only did bettors move Oklahoma from -4 1/2 to -8, but the game, played in prime time, was the only one on the schedule that Wednesday evening, leading to robust action. An inspired West Virginia won outright, crushing Oklahoma, 48-20.
Of course, money followers did have their successes, including covers by Florida Atlantic (pick to -3 1/2) over Memphis in the New Orleans Bowl, Dec. 21; TCU (-3 to -6 1/2) over Houston in the Texas Bowl, Dec. 28; Kentucky (-4 to -8, although this point spread was affected more by Florida State suspensions than wagering) over FSU in the Music City Bowl, Dec. 31; Rutgers (-7 1/2 to -11) over Ball State in the International Bowl, Jan. 5; and Tulsa (-3 to -6) over Bowling Green in the GMAC Bowl, Jan. 6.
Interestingly, bowl game "smart money" was far more predictive with totals than point spreads. Over/under totals that moved three or more points were 9-4 in the direction of the money flow. The biggest moves were five points, both in the Humanitarian Bowl, where the total was bumped from 49 1/2 to 54 1/2 in a game that featured 68 points, and in the International Bowl, where the over/under was bet up from 58 to 63 in a game where 82 points were scored.
For the record (we know some of you at home keep score), favorites covered 18 bowl games while underdogs beat the number 14 times. There were 16 games that went over the total, 15 that went under it and one push (Texas Tech and Virginia in the Gator Bowl).
The bottom line is that when it came to betting football bowl games, following the money was no sure route to success.
