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"SWEAT THE GAME, NOT THE PAYOUT!" |
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Looking For Nba Betting Clues
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February 8, 2008
With over half the NBA regular season complete, this would be both a convenient and appropriate time for NBA betting fans to take a detailed look back at the more than 600 games that have been played, searching the reams of data for a hardwood clue that, hopefully, will lead to hard cash.
While the growth and monetary fund providers warn that past results are no guarantee of future success there is a cadre of wagering wonks who believe that trends established early in the season tend to continue for the rest of the year. These gambling gurus insist that firmly held prejudices die hard and bettors (and even some asleep-at-the-switch bookmakers) are slow to recognize emerging teams that buck traditional preconceptions of their wagering worth.
Let's take a look. (All records through Jan. 25):
Atlanta: The Hawks are 11-5 as a favorite.
Boston: The Celtics not only have the best straight up (SU) record in the league but at 26-15, are fifth best against the point spread (ATS). Boston is 10-1 ATS versus fellow Atlantic Division teams.
Charlotte: The Bobcats are just 5-10-1 as an away underdog.
Chicago: The Bulls are tied with Miami for the worst point spread record in the NBA, 15-27. Chicago is 2-12 ATS versus Western Conference teams.
Cleveland: The Cavaliers are a dismal 5-10 as a home favorite.
Dallas: The Mavericks are just 6-11 as a road favorite.
Denver: The Nuggets are 18-13 as a favorite but 4-7 as an underdog.
Detroit: The Pistons have the fourth best point spread record in the NBA, including a 23-13 mark as a favorite.
Golden State: The Warriors are just 5-11 as a home favorite.
Houston: The Rockets are only 11-19 as a glitzy favorite but 9-3 as an underdog.
Indiana: The Pacers are just 1-6 ATS within their own Central Division.
Los Angeles: The Clippers are 3-0 ATS in the second game of back-to-back road games.
Los Angeles: The Lakers are 5-1 ATS versus teams from their own Pacific Division.
Memphis: The Grizzlies are 7-13 ATS in the game after a point spread win.
Miami: The Heat has covered just 35.7 percent of its games and is 5-19 ATS within their own Eastern Conference.
Milwaukee: The Bucks are 5-2 ATS in their own Central Division but are just 4-8 as a favorite.
Minnesota: The Timberwolves have the fewest SU wins in the NBA and, at 18-24, also are the fourth worst team ATS. Minnesota is 2-6 ATS within its own Northwest Division and 10-19 ATS versus Western Conference teams, overall.
New Jersey: The Nets have the third worst point spread record in the NBA, covering just 36.6 percent of their games. What's more, New Jersey is 1-8 ATS in its own Atlantic Division and 5-16-2 ATS at home.
New Orleans: The Hornets have the best point spread record (27-14-1) in the NBA, including a fabulous 14-5-1 ATS on the road.
New York: The Knicks are 1-5 as a favorite, all at home.
Orlando: The Magic has the third best point spread record in the league, including a 6-2 ATS record within the Southeast Division and a 12-5 mark as an underdog.
Philadelphia: The Sixers, who are tied with the Sonics for the fifth worst point spread record in the league, are just 7-13-1 ATS at home this season.
Phoenix: The Suns are 9-15-1 ATS versus other teams in the Western Conference.
Portland: The Trailblazers are one of just six teams covering 60 percent of their games and are 7-1 as a home underdog.
Sacramento: The Kings are 8-3 as a home underdog.
San Antonio: The Spurs are just 1-5 as away underdogs.
Seattle: The Sonics are just 8-15 ATS on the road this season.
Toronto: The Raptors are 11-4 as a home favorite.
Utah: The Jazz is 14-7 ATS at home but 7-15 ATS on the road.
Washington: The Wizards have the second best point spread record in the NBA, including a 14-6 mark as a favorite.
Will these trends hold up in the second half of the season? Newton's first law of motion, that "Every object in a state of uniform motion tends to remain in that state of motion unless an external force is applied to it," suggests they might. But handicapping isn't science, no matter how much some NBA betting aficionados wish it were, so bettors will have to experiment with these trends for themselves.
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